WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans' pay is up, fewer people need
unemployment aid, more are buying new homes and business spending is
rebounding.
A flurry
of data released Wednesday signaled that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy
remain solid, if unspectacular, three weeks before the Federal Reserve will
likely begin raising interest rates.
Consumers
appear relatively confident in the economy and may be poised to spend a decent
chunk of their rising incomes during the holiday shopping season. In addition,
businesses are stepping up their investment in machinery and equipment,
removing a persistent drag on the economy.
The
steady consumer and business demand in the United States is powering the
economy through economic pressures from overseas, which jolted financial
markets during August and September and raised doubts about global growth.
With the
U.S. job market on solid footing and wages beginning to rise, the Fed is widely
expected to raise short-term rates in mid-December for the first time in nine
years.
Wages and
salaries jumped 0.6 percent in October, the Commerce Department said Wednesday,
and data for the spring and summer was revised substantially higher. U.S.
paychecks were 4.9 percent higher in October than they were a year earlier, a
sizable gain. By contrast, in the first four years after the Great Recession
ended in 2009, paychecks typically rose only about 2 percent to 3 percent.
"The
extra growth in wage income is good news for retailers hoping for a strong
holiday shopping season," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at
High Frequency Economics.
O'Sullivan
forecasts that the economy's annual growth rate could reach 2.7 percent in the
final three months of the year, from 2.1 percent in the third quarter.
Consumer
spending rose only 0.1 percent in October, though that weak showing occurred
partly because the month was unusually warm and Americans paid less for heat.
In the second and third quarters, consumer spending topped 3 percent, a
historically robust level.
With
incomes revised higher, the savings rate jumped last month to 5.6 percent, the
highest since 2012.
"History
tells us that a chunk of that savings will eventually get spent," said
Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont.
Measures
of consumer confidence have been mixed but generally paint an optimistic
picture. According to Gallup, Americans plan to spend on average $830 on
holiday shopping this winter — the most since 2007, just before the recession
officially began.
And
consumer sentiment ticked up this month, according to a survey by the
University of Michigan. Lower and middle-income Americans were more optimistic
about their personal finances in the coming year than higher-income households
were, the survey found.
Still, a
separate measure of consumer confidence from the Conference Board, a business
research group, fell in November to its lowest point in more than a year. It
found that fewer Americans expected their incomes to rise.
Even so,
Americans are unleashing pent-up demand for big-ticket items such as homes and
cars. Sales of new homes jumped last month and have increased 15.7 percent
through the first 10 months of 2015.
Home
sales have been bolstered by strong hiring and low mortgage rates. Sales of
existing homes are on track to reach their highest level since 2007, even
though rising prices are sidelining many potential buyers.
Separately,
U.S. factories in October received more orders for long-lasting goods,
including steel, machinery and computers. The increase added to other evidence
that manufacturing is recovering after a generally brutal year. A higher-valued
dollar has made U.S. goods more expensive overseas.
And
factory output has also been held back by low oil prices, which forced oil and
gas drillers to slash orders for steel pipe and other equipment.
Now,
though, those drags appear to be fading.
Consistent
hiring has underpinned most of the improvement in the economy this year.
Employers added 271,000 jobs in October, the most since last December, and the
unemployment rate reached 5 percent, the lowest level since the spring of 2008.
Solid job
gains are likely to continue, at least judging from how few people are losing
jobs. The number of people seeking unemployment benefits, which generally
mirrors the pace of layoffs, fell to nearly 40-year lows last week.
Year-over-year
inflation, which had remained stubbornly below the Fed's target rate, has now
reached 1.7 percent according to a measure compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas. That's not far from the Fed's 2 percent target.
And
Americans expect slightly higher inflation in coming months, according to the
University of Michigan's survey. That could bolster the case for the Fed to
raise rates at its next meeting.
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